Model Risk

The Zen of Modeling

The Zen of Modeling

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Risk modeling is as much art as it is science: The Zen of Modeling aims to capture the struggle for risk modeling beauty An undocumented risk model is only a computer program A risk model that cannot be programmed is only a concept A risk model only comes to life with empirical validation Correct implementation of an imperfect model is better than wrong implementation of a perfect model In complex systems there is always more than one path to a risk model There are no persistently true models but there are many persistently wrong models Correlation is imperfectly correlated with causation Nirvana is the simplest model that is fit for purpose Hierarchical systems lead to hierarchical models.