Monte Carlo Simulation of the US Electoral College

Using a simplified version of the rules of the US Electoral College system we illustrate how the use of Monte Carlo techniques allows exploring systems that show combinatorial explosion

Reading Time: 9 min.
The role of simulation in risk management and decision support A Simulation is a simplified imitation of a process or system that represents with some fidelity its operation over time. In the context of risk management and decision support simulation can be a very powerful tool as it allows us to assess potential outcomes in a systematic way and explore what-if questions in ways that might otherwise be not feasible. Simulation is used when the underlying model is too complex to yield explicit analytic models (An analytic model is one can be “solved” exactly or with standard numerical methods, for example resulting in a formula).
Federated Credit Systems, Part One: Unbundling the Credit Provision Business Model

Federated Credit Systems, Part One: Unbundling the Credit Provision Business Model

In this Open Risk White Paper, the first in a series of three, we introduce and explore the concept of federated credit systems as a potentially interesting domain for the application of federated analysis and federated learning.

Reading Time: 1 min.
Federated Credit Systems, Part I: Unbundling the Credit Provision Business Model: As an architectural design and information technology approach, federation has received increased attention in domains such as the medical sector (under the name federated analysis), in official statistics (under the name trusted data) and in mass computing devices (smartphones), under the name federated learning. In this (the first of series of three) white paper, we introduce and explore the concept of federated credit systems.
Logarithmic Sankey Visualization of Credit Migrations

Logarithmic Sankey Visualization of Credit Migrations

Sankey diagrams are very useful for the visualization of flows, especially when there is a conserved quantity. They can be tricky when some of the flows are much smaller than others. In the latest release of transitionMatrix we include an example of a log-scale version of Sankey

Reading Time: 5 min.
Using Sankey Diagrams: Sankey Diagrams are a type of flow diagram composed of interconnected arrows. The width of the arrows is proportional to the flow rate. Sankey diagrams are often used in physical sciences (physics, chemistry, biology) and engineering but also in economics. They can be used to represent the relative role and significance of various inputs and outputs in a given process. Sankey diagrams emphasize the major transfers within a system.
openNPL 0.2 REST API implementation

openNPL 0.2 REST API implementation

The 0.2 release of openNPL exposes a RESTful API that provides easy standardized online access to NPL credit portfolio data conforming to the EBA NPL templates

Reading Time: 4 min.
openNPL 0.2 release: The open source openNPL platform supports the management of standardized credit portfolio data for non-performing loans. In this respect it implements the detailed European Banking Authority NPL loan templates. It aims to be at the same time easy to integrate in human workflows (using a familiar web interface) and integrate into automated (computer driven) workflows. The latest (0.2) release exposes a REST API that offers machine oriented access using, what is by now, the most established mechanism for achieving flexible online data transfers.
Back to School With the Open Risk Academy

Back to School With the Open Risk Academy

In the Back-to-School for 2020 we have more ways to access the Academy, new functionalities and more courses. In the rest of this post you will find a summary of the changes with pointers to further information where required

Reading Time: 4 min.
Risk Management will not be the same going forward: too much is at stake! The summer is over in the Northern Hemisphere - and what an unusual summer has it been! Worldwide the implications and challenges of adjusting to a Covid-19 pandemic are still a major issue, affecting individuals, companies and governments. At Open Risk we have been tracking and will continue to interpret the impact of the pandemic via a number of projects:
openNPL now Available in Dockerized Form

openNPL now Available in Dockerized Form

Open Source, cloud based management of Non-Performing Loan data following the European Banking Authority's templates with just a few keystrokes!

Reading Time: 1 min.
openNPL now Available in Dockerized Form: Following up on the first release of openNPL the platform is now available to install using Docker. Running openNPL via docker is the installation option that simplifies the manual process (but a working docker installation is required!). Docker Hub You can pull the latest openNPL image from Docker Hub (This method is recommended if you do not want to mess with the source distribution).
21 Ways to Visualize a Timeseries

21 Ways to Visualize a Timeseries

We explore a variety of distinct ways to visualize the same simple dataset

Reading Time: 25 min.
What this blog post is about (and what it isn’t): With the ever more widespread adoption of Data Science, defined as the intensive use of data in various forms of decision making, there is a renewed interest in Visualization as an effective channel for humans to understand data at various stages of the data lifecycle. There is a large variety of visualization tools which can produce an ever more bewildering variety of visualization types
openNPL: Open Source NPL Platform - First Release

openNPL: Open Source NPL Platform - First Release

We introduce an open source platform that allows the easy management of non-performing loan data

Reading Time: 4 min.
Non-Performing Loans: The covid-19 crisis will certainly impact the concentration of Non-Performing Loans but given the special nature of this economic crisis compared (in particular) with the 2008 financial crisis it is unclear how precisely things will evolve. In a previous post and white paper (OpenRiskWP07_022616) we discussed the importance of advancing open and transparent methodologies for managing the risks associated with such credit portfolios. Effective management of NPL is also a top regulatory priority.
Risk Compensation: From Face Masks to Credit, Market and Systemic Risk

Risk Compensation: From Face Masks to Credit, Market and Systemic Risk

Reading Time: 7 min.
What is Risk Compensation? Risk Compensation is a behavioral model of human attitudes towards risk which suggests that people might adjust their behavior in response to the perceived level of risk. It follows that, depending on the strength of the effect, that it might counteract and even annul the impact of risk mitigation, if the updated attitude and behavior modifies the actual underlying risk Examples of potential risk compensation effects abound A prominent example of potential risk compensation in recent times that established the concept in more formal terms in public policy debates concerned the beneficial role of safety belts in automobiles.
Comparing Google Community Mobility Reports Across Countries

Comparing Google Community Mobility Reports Across Countries

Reading Time: 4 min.
The community mobility reports and OpenCPM: In a previous post we introduced the new OpenCPM functionality that integrates COVID-19 community mobility data (currently from Google). The reports chart movement trends over time by geography, across different categories of places such as retail and recreation, groceries and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential. While these reports are unlikely to persist as open data sources, the current availability (as of May 2020) enables providing within OpenCPM a mobility data dashboard that can help draw insights through visualization and statistical analysis.
Exploring Community Mobility Reports Using OpenCPM

Exploring Community Mobility Reports Using OpenCPM

Reading Time: 7 min.
The community mobility reports and OpenCPM: As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded technology providers (notably Google and Apple) made available to the public aggregated, anonymized insights about human mobility in this crisis period on the basis of smartphone location data. These Community Mobility Reports provide insights into how mobility patterns changed in response to news and policies aimed at combating COVID-19. The reports chart movement trends over time by geography, across different categories of places such as retail and recreation, groceries and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential.
New Open Risk Academy Course: Introduction to Geojson

New Open Risk Academy Course: Introduction to Geojson

Reading Time: 2 min.
Course Content: This course is a CrashProgram (short course) introducing the GeoJSON specification for the encoding of geospatial features. The course is at an introductory technical level. It requires some familiarity with data specifications such as JSON and a very basic knowledge of Python Who Is This Course For: The course is useful to: Any developer or data scientist that wants to work with geospatial features encoded in the geojson format How Does The Course Help: Mastering the course content provides background knowledge towards the following activities:
The Game of Life With Macroeconomic Stimulus

The Game of Life With Macroeconomic Stimulus

Agent-based models is a major class of simulation models, with many potential applications in economics and finance

Reading Time: 7 min.
Agent-Based Models: The origins and early years According to Wikipedia an agent-based model (ABM) is ABM: class of computational models for simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents (both individual or collective entities such as organizations or groups) with a view to assessing their effects on the system as a whole. A cellular automaton is a particular class of ABM. It is a discrete dynamical model used and studied in a variety of fields: computer science, mathematics, physics, complexity science, theoretical biology among others.
New Open Risk Academy Course: Simulation of Credit Contagion

New Open Risk Academy Course: Simulation of Credit Contagion

Reading Time: 2 min.
Course Content: This course is an introduction to the concept of credit contagion. It covers the following topics: Contagion Risk Overview and Definition Various Contagion Types and Modelling Challenges The Simple Contagion Model by Davis and Lo Supply Chains Contagion Sovereign Contagion Who Is This Course For: The course is useful to: Risk Analysts across the financial industry and beyond Risk Management students Quantitative Risk Managers developing or validating risk models How Does The Course Help: Mastering the course content provides background knowledge towards the following activities:
Connecting the Dots: Economic Networks as Property Graphs

Connecting the Dots: Economic Networks as Property Graphs

Reading Time: 0 min.
Connecting the Dots: Economic Networks as Property Graphs: We develop a quantitative framework that approaches economic networks from the point of view of contractual relationships between agents (and the interdependencies those generate). The representation of agent properties, transactions and contracts is done in the a context of a property graph. A typical use case for the proposed framework is the study of credit networks. You can find the white paper here: (OpenRiskWP08_131219)
Why is risk so poorly defined?

Why is risk so poorly defined?

Reading Time: 4 min.
A survey of existing definitions of risk: When looking up the meaning of risk we are immediately confronted with a surprising situation. There is no satisfying and authoritative general purpose one-liner that we can adopt without second thoughts. Let us start with the standard dictionary definitions: The online Merriam Webster Dictionary defines risk as the possibility of loss or injury The online Cambridge Dictionary opines that risk means the possibility of something bad happening The Oxford English (Concise, Hardcover!
What do people talk about at FOSDEM 2020

What do people talk about at FOSDEM 2020

FOSDEM means Free and Open Source Software Developers European Meeting

Reading Time: 4 min.
Introduction: FOSDEM is a non-commercial, volunteer-organized European event centered on free and open-source software development. It is aimed at developers and anyone interested in the free and open-source software movement. It aims to enable developers to meet and to promote the awareness and use of free and open-source software. FOSDEM is held annually since 2001, usually during the first weekend of February, at the Université Libre de Bruxelles Solbosch campus in the southeast of Brussels, Belgium.
Making Open Risk Data easier

Making Open Risk Data easier

We introduce an online database that allows the (relatively) easy publication of structured risk data

Reading Time: 1 min.
Making Open Risk Data easier: In an earlier blog post we discussed the promise of Open Risk Data and how the widespread availability of good information that is relevant for risk management can substantially help mitigate diverse risks. The list of Open Risk Data providers, particularly from public sector, keeps increasing and we are aiming to document all available datasets in the dedicated page of the Open Risk Manual.
NACE Classification and the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy

NACE Classification and the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy

Reading Time: 1 min.
NACE Classification and the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy: The integration of climate risk and broader sustainability constraints into risk management is a monumental task and many tools are still lacking. Yet there is strong support and bold initiatives from policy bodies and an increasing focus from the private sector side. The EU (Sustainable Finance) Taxonomy is one such initiative of fundamental significance as it attempts to map at a granular level economic activities with respect to their climate risk mitigation or adaptation potential and create tangible metrics and thresholds to measure progress (the ultimate anti-greenwashing treatment)
Risk Model Ontology

Risk Model Ontology

Reading Time: 2 min.
Semantic Web Technologies: The Risk Model Ontology is a framework that aims to represent and categorize knowledge about risk models using semantic web information technologies. In principle any semantic technology can be the starting point for a risk model ontology. The Open Risk Manual adopts the W3C’s Web Ontology Language (OWL). OWL is a Semantic Web language designed to represent rich and complex knowledge about things, groups of things, and relations between things.