Commentary

Homo Staticus

The web as we now know it burst first into the open in the early nineties. It certainly did not start among the typically more socially active classes. It was an invention by and for nerdy CERN physicists. The objective was to exchange data about elementary particle experiments. But it wasn’t long before academics figured out additional valuable uses of this technology: You could put your face online, along with a CV. This is how “personal” academic webpages came to life. Those early home pages were mostly dour affairs, replete with long publication lists.

The mystery of the collapsed cathedral

You walk to the center of an old city, and you see its glorious cathedral lying in ruins. What in the world has happened here? Your investigative instinct goes into overdrive. This is not supposed to happen. Not in peacetime anyway. How can it be that this magnificent edifice, after gracing the town’s central square for who knows how many centuries, is now little more than a rubble pile in the center of town?

Securitisation versus Banking

The ever elusive CMU dream

There is(/was) renewed interest in EU-land over deepening a capital markets union, aka CMU. It is among the initiatives being pursued by the Commission in order to help accelerate growth in the European Union.

The initiative encompasses many elements, both around equity (shares) and debt markets. One important pillar of the CMU aims to re-launch some version of an EU securitisation market. This segment was never really defined in a EU-wide basis. In the pre-crisis European financial landscape there were wide disparities in the degree of adoption, legal frameworks, preferred structures etc. among the different countries comprising the EU. In any case, since the financial crisis there has been a steady decline in securitisation volumes, which amongst others, hinders certain types of exceptional central bank measures (i.e., purchasing securitised assets).

Criteria for identifying simple, transparent and comparable securitisations

(See BIS D304)

Our view is that securitisation is fundamental financial technology and there is no intrinsic technical reason why it could not be harnessed to best serve the functioning of modern economies.

This page is a summary of a presentation given at the 2014 Autumn TopQuants Meeting, aka, the Open Source Risk Modeling Manifesto.

The dismal state of quantitative risk modeling

The current framework of internal risk modeling at financial institutions has had a fatal triple stroke. We saw in quick sequence: market risk, operational risk, and credit risk measurement failures, affecting practically all financial sector business models.

In our personal lives, it is the balance between work and life, or the dreadful weight balance. In the professional sphere it might be the balance between debt and equity in the financial industry, or the balance between convenience and citizen privacy in the new tech industry, or the welfare of the many balanced against the property of the few, or finally the geopolitical balance of power of different peoples Balance ensures sustainability as it helps steer away from the risks that lurk at the extremes. It is actually hard to find scenarios in which a balanced approach would not be the optimal way to complete any meaningful journey. Maybe in a world with full visibility and zero risk.

Financial Risk Modelling has suffered enormous setbacks in recent years, with all major strands of modelling (market, credit, operational risk) proven to have debilitating limitations. It is impossible to imagine a modern financial system that does not make extensive use of risk quantification tools, yet rebuilding confidence that these tools are fit-for-purpose will require significant changes. These need to improve governance, transparency, quality standards and in some areas even the development of completely new strands of modelling.